What frontier models still cannot reason about

Benchmarks reward pattern-matching. The harder test is judgement under uncertainty.

Bubal Think Tank14 September 202611 min read

Scale bought fluency, not judgement.

Topics

Why attention became the scarcest resource of the decade
Every platform competes for the same finite hours. We trace how the economics of attention reshaped media — and what it means for anyone trying to be heard.
The quiet return of industrial policy
Governments are picking winners again. The vocabulary changed before the policy did.
How cities think: infrastructure as memory
Roads, pipes and grids remember decisions long after the people who made them are gone.

Benchmarks reward pattern-matching. The harder test is judgement under uncertainty.

Bubal Think Tank14 September 202611 min read

Scale bought fluency, not judgement.

Why attention became the scarcest resource of the decade
Every platform competes for the same finite hours. We trace how the economics of attention reshaped media — and what it means for anyone trying to be heard.
The quiet return of industrial policy
Governments are picking winners again. The vocabulary changed before the policy did.
How cities think: infrastructure as memory
Roads, pipes and grids remember decisions long after the people who made them are gone.